Will bitcoin price rise after segwit
Success for Bitcoin has often meant success for alt-chains. For the last few weeks, the market has tended to rise and fall uniformly, with few exceptions. So if Bitcoin succeeds, the rest of the market will likely get a short boost before being overtaken by the crash. In this particular scenario, the theoretical price floor the market is heading towards whatever that might be will be unaltered.
In the case of a hiccup in the transition, there is a possibility that there will be two Bitcoin chains that the community will have to decide between. In a scenario like this, it is very likely that the collectivley price of Bitcoin will drop dramatically as the market tries to decide which chain to support. This scenario would not be too dis-similar to what happened with Ethereum after their hard fork in June of After part of the mining community left to start Ethereum Classic, the price of Ethereum took a noticeable downturn.
The reason this might be the case is because as opposed to ETC, which split largely due to ideological issues, the BTC mining community seems more motivated by profits and revenue. This will likely result in a temporarily depressed price for Bitcoin, as it will take a few months for the market to re-settle. It is still the most widely accepted cryptocurrency globally and even with a minor chain split, it will be unlikely to sway the public view.
When the value of Bitcoin drops, a certain percentage of investors are going to hunt for other opportunities to park their funds. Two of the most obvious blockchains to go for are Ethereum and Litecoin. It has the second highest valuation by market cap and is being compared in the media as the alternative cryptocurrency people should consider. More savvy investors would expand a bit further and consider a blockchain like Litecoin.
The two blockchains are structurally similar and earlier this year Litecoin successfully implemented their own version of SegWit.
Bitcoin will eventually recover and Ethereum and Litecoin will return to their pre-SegWit positions, baring any additional shocks to the market. However, more obscure chains might not get as much attention and continue their decent due to the crash. Ultimately, the impact of the crash in this scenario will be less noticeable, as the volatility caused by Bitcoin will make it hard to find any discernible trends in the short-term.
Longer-term, the crash will still prevail and the industry will go towards the natural post-crash floor. While we have an example of Ethereum successfully breaking into two chains, Bitcoin is a bit different. Bitcoin is the poster child of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Ultimately, the impact of the crash in this scenario will be less noticeable, as the volatility caused by Bitcoin will make it hard to find any discernible trends in the short-term.
Longer-term, the crash will still prevail and the industry will go towards the natural post-crash floor. While we have an example of Ethereum successfully breaking into two chains, Bitcoin is a bit different. Bitcoin is the poster child of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Hard forks are generally a very confusing affair. Have to explain to an average trader how a hard fork works and why the now have two kinds of BTC is going to be complicated.
If most users are in the position of having to decide between two different chains, they are likely to chose a third option of just selling out and not dealing with it. In the scenario of Bitcoin splitting chains, Litecoin and Ethereum would probably be the major benefactors of the valuation shift for the reasons listed above.
Litecoin may gain enough momentum as it is so similar to Bitcoin, but it has to raise in value very fast for this to be possible. While the power structure of the major blockchains will change dramatically, the market as a whole will likely lose value beyond the crash. Because of how visible Bitcoin is, a split in the chain is likely to cause some confusion with the larger investment community and push some people away.
Because of this, the price floor of the market will be lower than if the the permanent chain split did not happen. Regardless of your stance on Bitcoin, it is important for the image of the blockchain community. A public chain split will likely damage consumer trust and set blockchain back several years. After a few months of activity, the market will return more or less back to normal with no long-term impact. Market will have a lower post-crash price floor due to investor confidence being shaken.
Rest of the Market Success for Bitcoin has often meant success for alt-chains. Rest of the Market While the power structure of the major blockchains will change dramatically, the market as a whole will likely lose value beyond the crash. Conclusion Regardless of your stance on Bitcoin, it is important for the image of the blockchain community.
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